Thu, Jan 17, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 19 | 03 | 219 |
| DAL | 06 | 05 | 119 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:04LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:39LAKCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P3 18:56DALEsa LindellAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:21LAKCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:01DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Toffoli – Kempe7:41
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Brown – Kopitar9:42
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Leipsic – Iafallo6:33
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner4:10
xG 0.04–0.14 (21%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez11:56
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort11:50
xG 0.32–0.32 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Walker7:44
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark2:00
xG 0.06–0.03 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Janmark – Hintz3:17
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Cogliano – Dickinson3:55
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa4:09
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen6:41
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Carrick3:08
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Fedun – Carrick3:11
xG 0.06–0.05 (58%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).