Fri, Jan 18, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 14 | 08 | 09 | 121 |
| FLA | 213 | 09 | 17 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49TORRon HainseyAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kasperi Kapanen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:02FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, Nick Bjugstad · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:59FLAMike MathesonGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:14FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:27TORKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:13FLAEvgenii Dadonov: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:38TORAndreas Johnsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:15TORJake Gardiner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner12:29
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Johnsson – Matthews5:19
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Nylander – Lindholm3:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen11:20
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gardiner – Rielly2:13
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dermott – Zaitsev2:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly16:00
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau11:31
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano13:23
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Hawryluk5:59
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Malgin – Borgstrom9:59
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson19:58
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ekblad18:25
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Brown – McCoshen10:32
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).