Fri, Jan 18, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 17 | 210 | 426 |
| CBJ | 015 | 010 | 110 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Michael Chaput · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:27MTLTomas TatarGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 5:17CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Riley Nash, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P3 17:46MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Max Domi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 18:48MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Max Domi, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:44CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00CBJKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:17MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:58CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:55MTLMax Domi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lehkonen – Domi9:17
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Peca – Armia – Kotkaniemi7:49
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino6:36
xG 0.14–0.54 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin13:46
xG 0.47–0.89 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete11:36
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Petry – Reilly13:57
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Kulak14:54
xG 0.86–1.04 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Wennberg – Stenlund8:59
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Panarin – Dubois2:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois12:09
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson13:13
xG 0.54–0.77 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington15:58
xG 0.87–0.23 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones3:14
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:09
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).