Fri, Jan 18, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 213 | 016 | 339 |
| VAN | 24 | 113 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Vladimir Sobotka · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:12VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:31VANSven BaertschiAssists: Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 2:26BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Johan Larsson, Zemgus Girgensons · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 8:00VANBrock BoeserAssists: Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 12:52BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Conor Sheary, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 5:57VANLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Josh Leivo, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:48BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:42VANErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13BUFJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:13VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:28VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Sobotka – Rodrigues8:27
xG 0.62–0.28 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 1–2
- Sheary – Thompson – Mittelstadt10:29
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:59
xG 0.43–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:57
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – McCabe11:27
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin17:44
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut14:22
xG 0.39–0.66 (37%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Horvat – Boeser2:38
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Granlund – Schaller6:04
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Motte9:30
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen9:43
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pouliot12:25
xG 0.66–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Hutton – Stecher18:57
xG 0.68–0.81 (46%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev15:00
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).