Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Anaheim Ducks 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 03 | 14 | 314 |
| NJD | 18 | 014 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:10ANADaniel SprongAssists: Nick Ritchie, Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 10:38ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 5:11ANADerek GrantGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:04NJDJesper BrattAssists: Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:10NJDNathan Bastian: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P1 13:02NJDSteven Santini: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:16NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:50ANAJacob Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:53ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:04ANACam Fowler: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGibbons – Rowney – Kloos6:02
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Grant – Terry – Jones7:14
xG 0.06–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong10:49
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Shore11:28
xG 0.03–0.64 (5%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWelinski – Larsson7:51
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Welinski2:13
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Larsson2:06
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Palmieri – Coleman12:32
xG 0.63–0.06 (92%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Bratt – Hischier9:11
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Johansson – Bastian – Hischier2:02
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Boyle – Rooney – Bastian3:42
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson11:16
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Severson2:36
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Santini – Mueller11:06
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).