Sat, Jan 19, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 17 | 16 | 320 |
| BOS | 110 | 06 | 113 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:28BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:32NYRFilip ChytilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:22NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Brady Skjei, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:24BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 9:05NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:03NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min
- P1 6:19NYRRyan Lindgren: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 0:24BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:42BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:59NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27NYRAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:27NYRAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:27BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- McLeod – Buchnevich – Howden3:57
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Nieves9:02
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:04
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
- Fast – Strome – Chytil8:46
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Lindgren9:59
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei12:24
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
- Staal – DeAngelo16:21
xG 0.32–0.89 (27%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari9:46
xG 0.55–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Backes – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson9:24
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:42
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 1–2
- Krejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk9:00
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk10:20
xG 0.80–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo10:36
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:36
xG 0.01–0.02 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).