Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 116 | 113 | 110 | 339 |
| TBL | 27 | 213 | 26 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Anthony Cirelli, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:51TBLAlex KillornAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:39SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Timo Meier, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 0:58SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Radim Simek · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 7:29TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 12:01TBLVictor HedmanPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 5:08TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 14:15TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 19:23SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Tim Heed, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:24TBLAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:24TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:14SJSJoakim Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:00SJSKevin Labanc: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:44SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:14SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:48TBLRyan McDonagh: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Sorensen10:57
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Radil3:50
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl12:26
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc4:19
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek13:45
xG 0.94–0.60 (61%)attempts 23–12goals 1–2
- Braun – Dillon16:41
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Burns – Heed2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Paquette – Erne8:38
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Point12:27
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Joseph – Cirelli9:42
xG 0.62–0.76 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde12:52
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Stralman14:55
xG 0.29–0.47 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak16:45
xG 0.66–0.84 (44%)attempts 11–26goals 1–1
- Girardi – Hedman13:32
xG 0.39–0.75 (35%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).