Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 014 | 110 | 230 |
| STL | 111 | 115 | 112 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34OTTNick PaulAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 7:50STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:28STLVince DunnAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 1:00OTTMagnus PaajarviSHAssists: Zack Smith, Dylan DeMelo · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 12:16STLCarl GunnarssonGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 2:20STLMackenzie MacEachern: Holding2 min
- P2 19:53OTTChristian Jaros: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Stone – Tkachuk7:25
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Paul5:02
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau2:22
xG 0.01–0.00 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Paul2:21
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Wolanin16:48
xG 0.90–1.36 (40%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Chabot19:55
xG 0.38–1.06 (27%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Harpur – Jaros12:36
xG 0.26–1.07 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestNolan – MacEachern – Barbashev6:30
xG 0.61–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Schwartz11:43
xG 0.76–0.33 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Maroon – O'Reilly – Tarasenko16:48
xG 0.95–0.76 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Blais2:29
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn12:55
xG 1.97–0.40 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo18:15
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko18:33
xG 0.18–1.06 (14%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).