Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 16 | 115 | 430 |
| NSH | 08 | 020 | 211 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Henrik Borgstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:16FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 2:59FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 2:45NSHNick BoninoAssists: Roman Josi, Austin Watson · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:23NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 11:38FLAJared McCannAssists: Colton Sceviour, Jayce Hawryluk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46NSHDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 4:44FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:32NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:39NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38FLAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:32FLAMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:37FLAJared McCann: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – McCann – Hawryluk5:33
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:09
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Malgin – Borgstrom6:00
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano11:15
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson13:09
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:14
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 21–16goals 2–2
- Brown – McCoshen8:05
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Blackwell – Fiala5:47
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Watson4:21
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Grimaldi – Gaudreau – Fiala4:33
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Hartman – Gaudreau3:36
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Josi15:08
xG 0.64–0.58 (53%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber8:31
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm16:19
xG 0.71–0.78 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).