Sat, Jan 19, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 014 | 310 | 210 | 534 |
| EDM | 06 | 110 | 18 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:44CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:29CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P2 15:30CGYOliver KylingtonGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 19:42EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 4:16EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Caleb Jones · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 14:15CGYMikael BacklundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 16:03CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 13:17EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:18CGYMark Giordano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:00EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:11CGYMark Giordano: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:31EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:31CGYGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:23EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 8:56EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:56CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
- P2 12:41CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:35EDMKris Russell: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:23CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Embellishment2 min
- P3 2:27CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:57EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:19CGYJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:21EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50EDMBrandon Manning: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Bennett – Tkachuk4:58
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan3:18
xG 0.01–0.00 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Frolik – Backlund8:59
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan8:44
xG 0.17–0.53 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington6:51
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:50
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie9:03
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Cave – Puljujarvi3:10
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Rieder3:46
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid8:19
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Yamamoto5:27
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse11:50
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Manning – Benning8:21
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Jones7:57
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).