Sun, Jan 20, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 5, Chicago Blackhawks 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 115 | 19 | 315 | 539 |
| CHI | 310 | 112 | 48 | 830 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36CHIBrandon SaadAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:56CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 14:25WSHBrooks OrpikAssists: Brett Connolly, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 14:53CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 2:30CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 15:24WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Matt Niskanen, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 3:09WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Dmitry Orlov, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 3:45CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 7:20CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Carl Dahlstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 10:38WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 13:55WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Travis Boyd, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–6
- P3 14:57CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–7
- P3 18:11CHIDylan StromeENAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Other, 0.69 xG5–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:39CHIErik Gustafsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:44CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:44WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:23WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:23CHIDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:23WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:23CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:24WSHMichal Kempny: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:32WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21CHIArtem Anisimov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Boyd – Burakovsky6:24
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:24
xG 0.16–0.37 (31%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Kuznetsov – Connolly – Jaskin11:58
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Eller – Wilson – Vrana9:41
xG 0.55–0.89 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov16:13
xG 1.05–0.50 (68%)attempts 24–13goals 2–2
- Niskanen – Orlov2:32
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Bowey – Kempny2:03
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Anisimov – Hayden7:05
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun7:39
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula13:57
xG 0.76–0.77 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 3–0
- Kruger – Saad – Kampf11:44
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Gustafsson13:25
xG 1.11–0.47 (70%)attempts 15–14goals 3–2
- Murphy – Dahlstrom18:26
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 20–16goals 1–3
- Keith – Seabrook14:35
xG 0.56–0.84 (40%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).