Sun, Jan 20, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 218 | 08 | 237 |
| VAN | 19 | 013 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:16VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:34DETFrans NielsenAssists: Anthony Mantha, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:24DETThomas VanekAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Frans Nielsen · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:27VANBo HorvatAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 13:13VANAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Jake Virtanen · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:23VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:50VANJosh Leivo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:27DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 4:43DETThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:20VANAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Mantha9:46
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou8:09
xG 0.38–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn7:43
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin14:48
xG 0.81–1.18 (41%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser17:19
xG 1.45–0.25 (85%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Hronek10:53
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Kronwall – Green16:30
xG 0.60–1.14 (35%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Beagle – Motte7:35
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte2:32
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Granlund – Baertschi – Horvat2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen2:30
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hutton5:31
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev9:20
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher4:44
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).