Sun, Jan 20, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 319 | 39 | 16 | 734 |
| EDM | 110 | 16 | 25 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 6:35CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Lucas Wallmark · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 11:02CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Brett Pesce, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 19:09EDMBrandon ManningAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.34 xG3–1
- P2 1:50CARBrock McGinnAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 4:07CARLucas WallmarkPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–1
- P2 18:29CARJordan MartinookAssists: Warren Foegele, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG6–1
- P2 19:41EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.16 xG6–2
- P3 0:14EDMZack KassianAssists: Matt Benning, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 7:07EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Alex Chiasson · Snap, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 17:38CARLucas WallmarkENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.76 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:17CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:17EDMBrandon Manning: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:32CARLucas Wallmark: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:00CARSaku Maenalanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:24EDMAlex Chiasson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:36CARNino Niederreiter: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:19CARNino Niederreiter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho10:21
xG 1.39–0.80 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 2–2
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele10:19
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- McGinn – Wallmark – Svechnikov8:59
xG 0.64–0.24 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Martinook – Aho3:46
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce14:45
xG 2.02–0.65 (76%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk10:21
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin12:38
xG 1.07–0.94 (53%)attempts 16–17goals 2–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Khaira – Draisaitl3:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Lucic – Cave – Puljujarvi4:31
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Rieder6:14
xG 0.32–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Cave – Yamamoto2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Larsson6:40
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Benning – Nurse2:31
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Russell – Larsson2:22
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).