Mon, Jan 21, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 28 | 28 | 422 |
| VGK | 15 | 119 | 08 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 9:09MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Nick Seeler · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 10:22MINEric StaalAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 12:36VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Paul Stastny, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 14:29MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 19:47MINMikko KoivuENAssists: Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:40MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:11MINVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:35VGKBrandon Pirri: Holding2 min
- P2 14:38MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:15MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:04MINMarcus Foligno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:04VGKPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin6:13
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Staal – Coyle – Greenway12:39
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Parise – Rask – Aberg10:06
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:22
xG 0.38–0.81 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Seeler9:10
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon19:36
xG 1.03–0.81 (56%)attempts 18–21goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Brodin2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Karlsson – Marchessault10:38
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Carpenter8:50
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek7:32
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch14:11
xG 0.29–1.17 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt12:01
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Holden – Miller13:28
xG 0.82–0.70 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Engelland – Theodore13:46
xG 0.31–0.93 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).