Tue, Jan 22, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
San Jose Sharks 7, Washington Capitals 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 215 | 213 | 213 | 12 | 743 |
| WSH | 314 | 212 | 111 | 02 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:41WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 12:11WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 14:27SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 15:19WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 0:52SJSEvander KaneAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 2:53WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 5:41WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P2 14:39SJSLogan CoutureUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
- P3 5:52WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 10:02SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Snap, 0.16 xG5–6
- P3 19:59SJSEvander KaneAssists: Tomas Hertl, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–6
- OT 1:48SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:28SJSTim Heed: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:46WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:03WSHLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:45WSHDmitrij Jaskin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:34SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:53SJSEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:50WSHAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:49WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc5:14
xG 0.21–0.23 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier10:17
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil5:17
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:43
xG 0.34–0.89 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed9:41
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Simek5:16
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 2–2
- Burns – Dillon2:30
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Jaskin9:25
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Boyd – Stephenson – Burakovsky6:10
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana10:55
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:32
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Siegenthaler8:38
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Kempny16:44
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov16:49
xG 0.49–0.83 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).