Tue, Jan 22, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 011 | 212 | 14 | 327 |
| EDM | 07 | 010 | 217 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:03DETDylan LarkinAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 10:01DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Darren Helm, Andreas Athanasiou · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 4:31EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Alex Chiasson, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 6:28DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 17:34EDMMatt BenningAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:30EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:06DETFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:18EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:38EDMAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin8:47
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Ehn4:42
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou7:14
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Mantha6:00
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green14:41
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:41
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Ericsson – Hronek9:20
xG 0.13–0.67 (16%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid4:44
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid2:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi3:43
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Khaira – Draisaitl5:30
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse16:03
xG 0.94–0.34 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Benning11:23
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Benning – Nurse3:03
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).