Wed, Jan 23, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 213 | 26 | 532 |
| ANA | 12 | 07 | 04 | 113 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44ANADaniel SprongAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:34STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:04STLZachary SanfordGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 7:41STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Patrick Maroon, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 8:42STLTyler BozakAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 9:16STLSammy BlaisAssists: Mackenzie MacEachern, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
Penalties (1)
- P3 10:35STLTyler Bozak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko15:55
xG 1.44–0.40 (78%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais8:32
xG 0.93–0.12 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford13:02
xG 1.01–0.42 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Steen – Bozak – Schwartz13:03
xG 0.90–0.41 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo17:51
xG 2.00–0.33 (86%)attempts 27–9goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Dunn16:29
xG 1.06–0.46 (70%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko20:44
xG 1.33–0.85 (61%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Terry – Jones2:16
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Shore7:17
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Shore – Sprong7:52
xG 0.48–0.62 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong3:04
xG 0.09–0.24 (26%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Welinski2:20
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Montour21:46
xG 0.76–1.16 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Fowler – Manson16:37
xG 0.44–1.67 (21%)attempts 11–27goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).