Wed, Jan 23, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 513 | 011 | 534 |
| VAN | 04 | 215 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:54CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:57VANJosh LeivoAssists: Troy Stecher, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:14VANSven BaertschiAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 6:53CARGreg McKeggAssists: Saku Maenalanen, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:17CARNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 13:42CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P2 16:32CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Greg McKegg, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:49CARTeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:40VANChris Tanev: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:52VANLoui Eriksson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36CARJustin Williams: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:30VANAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:30VANAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:30VANAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:53VANBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P3 13:38CARAndrei Svechnikov: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:38VANErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:38VANErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:38VANErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Martinook – Aho3:46
xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho11:00
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele8:24
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- McKegg – Teravainen – Martinook2:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – van Riemsdyk6:35
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin11:30
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury4:27
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Leivo – Horvat4:49
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Pettersson3:10
xG 0.09–0.09 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Virtanen2:33
xG 0.03–0.10 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Leivo – Horvat – Virtanen2:03
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Gudbranson2:26
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Edler – Hutton2:34
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Stecher2:48
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).