Mon, Jan 28, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 112 | 09 | 132 |
| PHI | 08 | 212 | 111 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:47PHIPhil VaroneAssists: Michael Raffl, Christian Folin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 12:59WPGJack RoslovicPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:46PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:25PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:09WPGJack Roslovic: Holding2 min
- P1 18:56PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:03PHINolan Patrick: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:08PHIOskar Lindblom: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:55WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Lowry – Roslovic – Tanev2:28
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev7:25
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton6:46
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:17
xG 0.08–0.51 (13%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morrow – Niku11:00
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov15:20
xG 0.20–0.55 (27%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey16:06
xG 0.26–1.21 (18%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom10:09
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick9:34
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny9:09
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Varone – Raffl – Vorobyev6:00
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg5:38
xG 0.69–0.07 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Folin – Sanheim2:03
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gudas – Hagg6:15
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).