Mon, Jan 28, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 213 | 27 | 632 |
| PIT | 010 | 112 | 218 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Miles Wood, Steven Santini · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:53NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 3:30NJDBrian BoyleSHAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 4:28PITDerick BrassardAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Juuso Riikola · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 12:57NJDBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 11:42NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–1
- P3 12:30PITMatt CullenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 13:37NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Andy Greene · Snap, 0.31 xG6–2
- P3 18:03PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:51NJDSteven Santini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:53NJDBrett Seney: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:26NJDSami Vatanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:16PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58NJDMirco Mueller: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:56PITMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:56NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 9:12PITDerick Brassard: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:12PITDerick Brassard: Elbowing5 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood9:39
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Johansson – Palmieri – Hischier11:37
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Rooney4:08
xG 0.04–0.40 (8%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Zacha – Seney – Bratt7:20
xG 0.19–0.69 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson11:56
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Butcher – Santini2:51
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher9:14
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Rust8:33
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Cullen – Wilson – Sheahan6:03
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Brassard – Pearson7:22
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Simon10:03
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola9:13
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Pettersson10:12
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:46
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).