Thu, Jan 31, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 017 | 111 | 15 | 341 |
| BOS | 110 | 17 | 08 | 00 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:16PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:11BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 10:36PHIOskar LindblomPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 2:56PHITravis SanheimPPGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:47PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:42BOSJohn Moore: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:46BOSSean Kuraly: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- OT 0:57BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Laughton – Patrick10:33
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier2:12
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Lindblom2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Varone – Raffl – Vorobyev6:07
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov20:06
xG 0.87–0.42 (67%)attempts 25–17goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gudas5:18
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hagg – Folin2:33
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Heinen – DeBrusk2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:58
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Backes – Heinen – Frederic7:34
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly9:45
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy16:30
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Moore – McAvoy2:49
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo3:48
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).