Fri, Feb 1, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 4, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 010 | 46 | 426 |
| FLA | 011 | 19 | 08 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:15FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 5:29NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 7:44NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 14:10NSHKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 18:04NSHViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:32NSHRocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:49FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:08NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 5:34NSHRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:20FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42NSHRocco Grimaldi: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:39NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:23
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Bonino – Smith – Fiala11:28
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Hartman6:53
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Grimaldi – Gaudreau5:29
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:04
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Subban – Ekholm13:06
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm2:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Hawryluk – Borgstrom5:42
xG 0.20–0.11 (63%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Haley4:51
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin10:48
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano9:40
xG 0.11–0.69 (14%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Matheson18:22
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Brown – McCoshen9:44
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:04
xG 0.16–0.85 (16%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).