Fri, Feb 1, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 113 | 06 | 225 |
| CAR | 110 | 215 | 27 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:13CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Justin Williams, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 0:47CARBrett PesceUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:47VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:23CARJordan MartinookGWGAssists: Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 3:51CARSebastian AhoAssists: Justin Williams, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:10CARJustin FaulkENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:52CARJustin Williams: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 15:47VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:44VGKReilly Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 11:24VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:44CARJaccob Slavin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Eakin – Zykov7:41
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch11:07
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Zykov2:24
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:29
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore17:25
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Merrill – Miller14:49
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- McNabb – Schmidt14:05
xG 0.68–1.14 (37%)attempts 12–27goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho11:49
xG 1.01–0.55 (65%)attempts 25–13goals 3–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov11:07
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark10:49
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele9:37
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce13:18
xG 0.95–0.61 (61%)attempts 15–17goals 3–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:42
xG 0.70–0.60 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk12:28
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).