Sat, Feb 2, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 014 | 013 | 135 |
| FLA | 112 | 06 | 27 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12FLAAleksander BarkovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:07VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 6:13FLAMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:44FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:07VGKMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:02VGKBrayden McNabb: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 0:14FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Tuch14:03
xG 1.57–0.45 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek7:46
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Zykov15:36
xG 0.96–0.91 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Smith – Pirri – Eakin13:16
xG 0.38–0.47 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:36
xG 1.70–0.22 (88%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore16:37
xG 1.05–0.88 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 1–2
- Schmidt – Theodore2:11
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Hawryluk – Malgin7:10
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Trocheck12:49
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Vatrano – Borgstrom9:40
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov15:26
xG 0.90–2.08 (30%)attempts 15–24goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Brown13:24
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson19:01
xG 0.81–0.68 (55%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ekblad17:24
xG 0.73–2.47 (23%)attempts 13–28goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).