Sat, Feb 2, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Los Angeles Kings 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 013 | 115 | 236 |
| NYI | 112 | 08 | 312 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09NYICasey CizikasAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:07LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 13:15LAKIlya KovalchukAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 13:46NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Ryan Pulock, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:37NYIMichael Dal ColleGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:29NYIBrock NelsonENAssists: Ryan Pulock, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:53NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:49LAKBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:58NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:35LAKBrendan Leipsic: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:50NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Amadio – Wagner8:52
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Brown – Kopitar2:20
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe6:01
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo10:15
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Fantenberg14:18
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort18:11
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Martinez – Doughty2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson11:32
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier7:49
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:26
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Dal Colle10:32
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:08
xG 0.96–0.45 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock16:35
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–20goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Toews12:18
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).