Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 011 | 214 | 433 |
| CBJ | 05 | 08 | 27 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:15STLCarl GunnarssonAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 6:15CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:49STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 17:23CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:30STLOskar SundqvistENAssists: Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:36STLVince Dunn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:58CBJJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43CBJScott Harrington: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko11:34
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Thomas3:56
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford8:29
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Schwartz10:01
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo15:46
xG 1.22–0.73 (63%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Parayko19:10
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Dunn11:26
xG 0.27–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Panarin – Dubois3:23
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg2:57
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Wennberg3:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois6:00
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara4:17
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Harrington – Nutivaara9:39
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski8:10
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).