Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 011 | 211 | 326 |
| NSH | 113 | 011 | 015 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Ryan Hartman, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:11DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, Esa Lindell · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 15:47DALBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 16:30DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:58DALBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:37NSHP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:48DALEsa Lindell: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:48NSHRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:09DALMattias Janmark: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:40NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:46DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:31DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Cogliano – Nichushkin8:27
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark10:28
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:16
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Benn – Faksa9:21
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen12:17
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Lindell2:22
xG 0.15–0.17 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:11
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Grimaldi – Gaudreau6:06
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Fiala7:49
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Hartman10:57
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:17
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:36
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 27–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin8:15
xG 0.47–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis16:17
xG 0.20–0.73 (21%)attempts 8–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).