Sat, Feb 2, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 214 | 17 | 12 | 431 |
| MIN | 18 | 011 | 212 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:51CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:47CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Dominik Kahun, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 8:11MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 15:25CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 16:58MINVictor RaskAssists: Jordan Greenway, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 1:19CHIErik GustafssonPPGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:21MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:37CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:31CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:51MINBrad Hunt: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:20MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:27CHIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:27MINMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:47MINJordan Greenway: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 18:52CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:19CHIAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:32MINGreg Pateryn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:41MINRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Saad – Kampf9:05
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Hayden – Perlini5:22
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula12:01
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun10:09
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Forsling2:59
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Keith – Gustafsson3:44
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling10:08
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Rask – Greenway8:25
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund13:42
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Greenway2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle13:29
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:03
xG 0.99–0.59 (63%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Seeler – Hunt6:36
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Brodin16:00
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).