Sun, Feb 3, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 210 | 05 | 02 | 324 |
| MTL | 113 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:44EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Milan Lucic, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:09MTLMax DomiAssists: Jeff Petry, Paul Byron · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:05EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 14:55EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 13:35MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Max Domi, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:58MTLJonathan DrouinGWGAssists: Victor Mete, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:34EDMMatt Benning: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 3:28EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P1 7:42MTLMax Domi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:24EDMKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:18MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:18EDMLeon Draisaitl: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:27MTLJordie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:28MTLShea Weber: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:06MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:49EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl9:08
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rattie – McDavid9:48
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Malone – Puljujarvi5:02
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira5:23
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse15:58
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Manning – Benning11:03
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gravel – Larsson17:56
xG 0.53–0.86 (38%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Tatar – Domi5:45
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:06
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Peca – Hudon5:13
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hudon – Domi2:37
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly11:10
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Kulak10:47
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn2:43
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).