Sun, Feb 3, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 213 | 19 | 432 |
| CAR | 114 | 110 | 113 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:58CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 7:39CGYDerek RyanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Oliver Kylington · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:34CGYGarnet HathawaySHAssists: Derek Ryan · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 18:27CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 13:05CGYNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, James Neal · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:05CARSebastian AhoAssists: Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:51CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:27CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:19CGYOliver Kylington: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:08CARMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:54CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:28CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:22CARLucas Wallmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:17CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:32CARJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:10
xG 0.95–0.46 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett6:49
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan5:34
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Gaudreau – Monahan2:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:16
xG 1.07–0.53 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Prout – Kylington10:00
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson15:33
xG 0.72–0.85 (46%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho13:19
xG 1.01–0.68 (60%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele4:47
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark8:45
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov8:19
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:45
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk8:30
xG 0.51–0.50 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Faulk – Pesce14:35
xG 0.70–1.02 (41%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).