Mon, Feb 4, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 114 | 018 | 142 |
| PHI | 114 | 112 | 04 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:37PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:20PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Phil Varone · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 5:14VANBrock BoeserUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:10PHINolan Patrick: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:01VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:04VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:05VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:36PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Goldobin – Boeser2:37
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson2:13
xG 0.04–0.04 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Leivo – Schaller – Horvat3:50
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen5:34
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Stecher17:07
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Pouliot2:40
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev12:44
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom7:20
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Varone – Raffl – Vorobyev5:18
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick10:45
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny8:15
xG 0.08–0.56 (12%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov16:41
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–24goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:58
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Gudas – Hagg12:43
xG 0.19–0.76 (20%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).