Tue, Feb 5, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 111 | 011 | 129 |
| BOS | 010 | 19 | 28 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:32BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 16:40NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:34BOSPeter CehlarikGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:05BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:18BOSDavid Backes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:43NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:51NYIRyan Pulock: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:04NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:08BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:45BOSChris Wagner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:41BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:41BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Dal Colle9:07
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas3:43
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson9:58
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier8:05
xG 0.01–1.05 (1%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:43
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews9:22
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:45
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak7:50
xG 0.88–0.17 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari11:44
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk9:32
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Frederic7:24
xG 0.05–0.09 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy2:21
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy10:40
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo12:51
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).