Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Los Angeles Kings 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 07 | 48 | 525 |
| NJD | 08 | 112 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:31NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Drew Stafford · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 0:32LAKTyler ToffoliPPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 1:07LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Michael Amadio, Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 1:52LAKDion PhaneufAssists: Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 17:36LAKIlya KovalchukAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:59LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:13LAKDerek Forbort: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:02NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:06LAKAustin Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:32NJDDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:39NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27LAKBrendan Leipsic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:27LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:27NJDMirco Mueller: Embellishment2 min
- P3 12:05LAKDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00LAKCarl Hagelin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:09
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Leipsic – Amadio3:47
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Clifford – Amadio – Wagner5:22
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe6:53
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Fantenberg13:57
xG 0.84–0.62 (58%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – LaDue11:53
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort13:14
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Palmieri – Hischier10:07
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Stafford – Zacha – Bratt7:54
xG 0.28–0.27 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Boyle – Gabriel – Rooney7:28
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood10:18
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Butcher – Mueller13:33
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Santini – Yakovlev11:41
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Greene – Severson13:16
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).