Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 013 | 214 | 232 |
| WSH | 118 | 04 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 5:47WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 8:02VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ben Hutton · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 12:13WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:52VANElias PetterssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:39WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:59VANNikolay Goldobin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:45WSHMichal Kempny: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:53WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Goldobin – Boeser12:31
xG 0.31–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Granlund2:18
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Roussel – Leivo – Pettersson6:45
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte2:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Stecher21:16
xG 1.13–0.94 (55%)attempts 25–21goals 1–1
- Biega – Pouliot11:01
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Tanev – Gudbranson12:52
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:16
xG 0.86–0.69 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana12:22
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Jaskin10:36
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Burakovsky5:57
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny17:03
xG 1.17–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Orpik – Carlson2:33
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov13:11
xG 0.47–0.46 (50%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).