Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 26 | 112 | 319 | 637 |
| COL | 211 | 114 | 05 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Alexander Wennberg, David Savard · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:59COLErik JohnsonUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 13:02CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Scott Harrington, Dean Kukan · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 18:37COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 14:06COLSamuel GirardAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Sheldon Dries · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 19:41CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 10:29CBJJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Dean Kukan · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 12:11CBJAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Seth Jones, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 18:32CBJPierre-Luc DuboisENAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.77 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:02CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:29COLIan Cole: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:18CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P3 10:29COLSven Andrighetto: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P3 12:30CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Dubois3:34
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson3:02
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen5:58
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois7:39
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski18:52
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Harrington – Kukan9:11
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Savard – Nutivaara12:40
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 12–21goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:12
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Dries5:14
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher8:08
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:25
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Cole12:22
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard4:31
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Nemeth2:50
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).