Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 012 | 514 | 635 |
| EDM | 216 | 07 | 04 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55CHIErik GustafssonPPAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:41EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.43 xG1–1
- P1 18:45EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 3:50CHIJohn HaydenAssists: Marcus Kruger, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 5:23CHIDylan StromeGWGAssists: Dominik Kahun, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 5:51CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brandon Saad, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 6:38CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 12:12CHIDominik KahunPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.17 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:51EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:30EDMKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min
- P1 16:02CHIConnor Murphy: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34CHICarl Dahlstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:34CHICarl Dahlstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:26EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34EDMJujhar Khaira: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – DeBrincat – Kahun10:52
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula11:53
xG 0.65–0.46 (58%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Saad3:44
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden2:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Murphy3:05
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Koekkoek2:55
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Gustafsson14:12
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Malone – Kassian2:59
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira5:43
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rattie – McDavid9:29
xG 0.79–0.67 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl8:10
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:19
xG 1.33–0.70 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Russell – Gravel2:03
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Gravel – Benning12:20
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).