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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 6, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York

Boston Bruins 3, New York Rangers 4 (SO)

Away

Boston Bruins

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New York Rangers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.

NYR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS0931109011330
NYR112010211062439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:45NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:37BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:49BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci, Kevan Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:11BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
  5. P3 9:24NYRKevin HayesAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
  6. P3 12:41NYRFilip ChytilPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
  2. 2. BOS Peter Cehlarik stopped
  3. 3. NYR Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
  4. 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  5. 5. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
  6. 6. BOS Brad Marchand scored
  7. 7. NYR Kevin Hayes stopped
  8. 8. BOS Charlie McAvoy stopped
  9. 9. NYR Filip Chytil stopped
  10. 10. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
  11. 11. NYR Jimmy Vesey stopped
  12. 12. BOS Danton Heinen stopped
  13. 13. NYR Tony DeAngelo scored
  14. 14. BOS David Krejci stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:39NYRMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 19:08BOSSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 19:08NYRJimmy Vesey: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 2:16BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 12:12BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 14:22NYRTony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 16:34BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 16:34NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 12:05BOSCharlie McAvoy: Boarding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
46% to win54% to win
← BOS attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Strome
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNYR
30Shots on goal39
2.9Expected goals4.3
55Shot attempts59
32Faceoffs won26
2Power plays4
12Penalty minutes8
26Hits42
10Blocked shots12
11Giveaways21
15Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestWagner – Kuraly – Acciari11:01

    xG 0.39–0.20 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0

  2. Bergeron – Marchand – Heinen6:00

    xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0

  3. Krejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk4:04

    xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  4. Krejci – Cehlarik – Pastrnak7:30

    xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMiller – Krug13:06

    xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  2. Grzelcyk – Carlo2:32

    xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

  3. Grzelcyk – McAvoy15:31

    xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestHayes – Vesey – Buchnevich3:20

    xG 0.70–0.06 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

  2. Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:29

    xG 0.69–0.26 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0

  3. Hayes – Fast – Buchnevich4:52

    xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  4. Vesey – Nieves – Lettieri4:17

    xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcQuaid – Skjei13:40

    xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0

  2. Shattenkirk – Skjei2:25

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Staal – DeAngelo13:38

    xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 4.3 xGBOS 2.9 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #233 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.08 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.

NYR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).