Thu, Feb 7, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 113 | 111 | 01 | 231 |
| FLA | 111 | 116 | 011 | 14 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 13:51PITJared McCannSHAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:32FLAColton SceviourAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 8:17PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:14FLAMike MathesonGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:27PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:25FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:14FLAMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:08PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:23PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Pearson – Blueger5:27
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon8:27
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Bjugstad – Guentzel8:02
xG 0.42–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kessel – Bjugstad5:07
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Riikola13:18
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dumoulin13:53
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:10
xG 0.87–1.04 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sceviour – Malgin5:57
xG 0.62–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sheahan – Borgstrom8:12
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Trocheck – Huberdeau14:11
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Barkov – Vatrano11:35
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad17:21
xG 1.52–1.06 (59%)attempts 25–17goals 1–1
- Brown – McCoshen7:03
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson18:50
xG 0.70–1.03 (41%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).