Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 118 | 113 | 06 | 02 | 3 | 339 |
| PHI | 011 | 19 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Kyle Clifford, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:00PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:33LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:42PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 2. LAK Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 3. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 4. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 5. PHI Nolan Patrick scored
- 6. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
- 7. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 8. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
- 9. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 10. LAK Alex Iafallo stopped
- 11. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 12. LAK Tyler Toffoli scored
Penalties (2)
- P2 18:35LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:14LAKAlex Iafallo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Amadio – Wagner9:12
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:09
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Thompson – Toffoli – Leipsic9:30
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe11:36
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaDue – Fantenberg12:28
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:28
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 23–17goals 0–1
- Martinez – Walker12:38
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVarone – Raffl – Vorobyev5:18
xG 0.18–0.09 (65%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier4:06
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom12:11
xG 0.57–0.81 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny12:31
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Hagg12:02
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – Provorov2:01
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov20:30
xG 0.79–0.91 (46%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).