Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 116 | 210 | 02 | 337 |
| WSH | 112 | 115 | 112 | 13 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:35COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:38WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P3 0:34WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 5:10COLMikko RantanenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:53COLColin WilsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:12WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:40COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:14WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 7:06COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:27COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P2 16:31COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18COLIan Cole: Interference5 min
- P3 11:18COLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18COLIan Cole: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P3 11:18WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – Greer – Dries3:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:58
xG 0.83–0.98 (46%)attempts 24–16goals 2–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher8:24
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto7:17
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard9:04
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Girard3:55
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Nemeth5:47
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:57
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana8:24
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom10:10
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Stephenson6:50
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov14:56
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Orlov – Bowey2:12
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny11:59
xG 0.84–0.76 (53%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).