Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 013 | 110 | 234 |
| MTL | 119 | 118 | 316 | 553 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:51MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:43MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:02MTLShea WeberGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 11:22MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Victor Mete · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 14:04MTLJesperi KotkaniemiPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 19:08WPGBrendan LemieuxAssists: Andrew Copp, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 12:13WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:49MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P3 10:11MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:11WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:47WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:31MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31WPGMathieu Perreault: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Little – Roslovic – Laine8:56
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Little – Appleton – Laine2:05
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton8:42
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev11:11
xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Kulikov15:50
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:16
xG 0.45–1.30 (26%)attempts 14–28goals 1–2
- Morrow – Trouba14:19
xG 0.18–1.39 (12%)attempts 8–25goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Drouin12:07
xG 1.28–0.21 (86%)attempts 25–9goals 3–0
- Tatar – Peca – Domi11:23
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Hudon6:47
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:49
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete16:17
xG 1.60–0.31 (84%)attempts 27–15goals 3–0
- Benn – Kulak14:18
xG 0.82–0.11 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Reilly14:35
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 24–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).