Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 15 | 210 | 423 |
| MIN | 06 | 015 | 115 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:32EDMTy RattieGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 2:50MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jason Zucker, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:35EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:40EDMZack KassianENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:40MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 10:18EDMMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:15MINJason Zucker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:34EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:46MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Cave – Puljujarvi4:26
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins10:30
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Malone – Kassian – Khaira11:10
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Rattie – Draisaitl – McDavid14:27
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:38
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Manning – Benning12:29
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse16:11
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Eriksson Ek – Kunin8:53
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Rau5:43
xG 0.31–0.16 (67%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Rask11:32
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Granlund – Greenway8:45
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:48
xG 1.20–0.19 (86%)attempts 30–9goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Brodin14:48
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler12:48
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).