Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 310 | 110 | 110 | 530 |
| CGY | 112 | 114 | 012 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:39SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 13:42SJSBrent BurnsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 14:04SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Radim Simek, Joonas Donskoi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 16:27SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–1
- P2 17:42CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Derek Ryan, James Neal · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 18:37SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Evander Kane, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:44SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:55CGYDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P1 11:47SJSTomas Hertl: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:33SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:19SJSTim Heed: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10CGYMike Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:35SJSMartin Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:45SJSEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:55CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Hertl11:21
xG 1.23–0.41 (75%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier11:52
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc8:00
xG 0.26–0.37 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Gambrell4:33
xG 0.03–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon11:47
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek11:25
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Heed8:05
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Mangiapane2:44
xG 0.23–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett9:08
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan5:08
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:04
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Andersson9:56
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin15:14
xG 0.57–0.92 (38%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:08
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).