Sat, Feb 9, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Los Angeles Kings 4, Boston Bruins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 216 | 26 | 01 | 429 |
| BOS | 015 | 17 | 37 | 14 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:38BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:13LAKAlex IafalloPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:02LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:27BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 4:57BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 6:49BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 9:19LAKNate ThompsonAssists: Brendan Leipsic · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 15:13LAKOscar FantenbergAssists: Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 2:34BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:13BOSJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:05LAKAlex Iafallo: Interference2 min
- P2 0:59LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game2 min
- P2 5:17BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
- P2 7:36BOSDavid Krejci: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:15BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:27LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe9:25
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Clifford – Amadio – Wagner5:46
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Thompson – Toffoli – Leipsic8:16
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:19
xG 0.07–0.71 (9%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Walker9:46
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Martinez – Fantenberg15:21
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:38
xG 0.19–0.96 (16%)attempts 9–19goals 1–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Heinen11:39
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Krejci – Cehlarik – Pastrnak10:52
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–3
- Wagner – Kuraly – DeBrusk6:04
xG 0.01–0.09 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Acciari4:43
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy17:00
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug10:47
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
- Krug – Carlo3:35
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).