Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 19 | 16 | 03 | 328 |
| NYI | 012 | 114 | 213 | 12 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Erik Johnson, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:36COLErik JohnsonAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 18:13NYIJordan EberleAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 8:03NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Michael Dal Colle, Adam Pelech · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 13:57NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 17:15COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Carl Soderberg, Colin Wilson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:23NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:32COLA.J. Greer: Elbowing2 min
- P2 0:43NYIMichael Dal Colle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:38COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:29NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:29COLCarl Soderberg: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:34COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Andrighetto – Greer – Dries7:19
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:28
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto11:11
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher10:34
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nemeth12:20
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves2:04
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Graves – Zadorov7:13
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Nelson13:07
xG 0.83–0.38 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Bailey – Dal Colle – Barzal11:19
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier10:52
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl11:10
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock18:34
xG 1.10–0.25 (81%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:55
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy17:36
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).