Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 19 | 111 | 232 |
| PHI | 414 | 013 | 213 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44PHIPhil VaroneAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:24PHISean CouturierAssists: Robert Hagg, Phil Varone · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 11:44PHIMichael RafflSHGWGAssists: Scott Laughton, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P1 17:46PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 0:51ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 4:57ANANick RitchiePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 12:15PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 18:49PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:54PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:15ANABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P1 19:53ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:53PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:53PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:51PHIJakub Voracek: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 15:23ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:19ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:36PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:53ANABrandon Montour: Holding2 min
- P3 10:28ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Shore – Rowney9:27
xG 1.18–0.04 (97%)attempts 25–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell12:39
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Kesler – Grant – Gibbons4:33
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong10:03
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Montour9:45
xG 0.78–0.23 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Montour2:47
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson11:07
xG 0.67–0.44 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom8:36
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Varone – Raffl – Vorobyev6:09
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny8:14
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick8:07
xG 0.14–0.98 (12%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov17:00
xG 1.20–0.46 (72%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:49
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg13:02
xG 0.50–1.26 (29%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).