Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 016 | 117 | 113 | 246 |
| OTT | 213 | 211 | 18 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57OTTMark StoneAssists: Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 12:21OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Cody Ceci, Colin White · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:00WPGBryan LittleAssists: Patrik Laine, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:50OTTMark StonePPGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 12:39OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 15:20OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 19:17WPGBrendan LemieuxAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:57OTTBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:57WPGBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:14OTTMaxime Lajoie: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:35WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:01OTTMaxime Lajoie: Interference2 min
- P3 3:32OTTThomas Chabot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev5:03
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine9:25
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton4:58
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Roslovic – Appleton2:17
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Myers2:09
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Myers – Morrow15:30
xG 0.73–0.87 (46%)attempts 24–21goals 0–2
- Trouba – Morrissey18:38
xG 0.58–0.89 (39%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel14:35
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau12:07
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Stone – Tierney – Balcers5:12
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Stone – White – Tkachuk8:12
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot8:24
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros14:49
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie13:43
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).