Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 17 | 112 | 231 |
| STL | 212 | 118 | 03 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37STLVince DunnAssists: Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 18:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 7:28NSHMattias EkholmPPAssists: Craig Smith, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:58STLMackenzie MacEachernGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 18:45NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:03STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:03NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:22NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:57STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:03NSHNick Bonino: Holding2 min
- P3 7:16NSHKyle Turris: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Sissons2:57
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Fiala – Arvidsson2:59
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Johansen – Forsberg3:00
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Sissons6:18
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm18:01
xG 0.66–0.74 (47%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis17:16
xG 0.70–1.51 (32%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin9:10
xG 0.03–1.26 (2%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMacEachern – Barbashev – Thomas4:24
xG 0.92–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko11:45
xG 1.01–0.42 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Schwartz10:18
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford10:33
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn10:48
xG 1.18–0.14 (89%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko17:11
xG 1.13–0.37 (76%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson18:01
xG 1.14–0.78 (59%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).