Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 110 | 19 | 13 | 531 |
| WSH | 08 | 212 | 210 | 00 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:30FLAKeith YandleAssists: Denis Malgin, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 5:02WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Christian Djoos · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 9:17FLAColton SceviourAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 19:19WSHLars EllerAssists: Nic Dowd, Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 0:07FLADerick BrassardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 6:12WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 16:54WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:31FLAMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:34FLAIan McCoshen: Holding2 min
- P1 10:54WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35WSHChristian Djoos: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:33WSHBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:56WSHBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano13:37
xG 1.13–0.74 (60%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Hoffman – Sheahan6:59
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Haley – Malgin4:03
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sheahan – Malgin2:54
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad19:46
xG 1.98–1.09 (64%)attempts 26–18goals 3–2
- Pysyk – Matheson19:53
xG 0.78–0.89 (47%)attempts 20–26goals 0–1
- Brown – McCoshen7:28
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky10:42
xG 1.35–0.36 (79%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson5:36
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana8:21
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Jaskin4:45
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Djoos7:12
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson3:37
xG 0.06–0.02 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Djoos2:29
xG 0.27–0.34 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).