Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 213 | 120 | 014 | 00 | 0 | 347 |
| VAN | 211 | 15 | 08 | 01 | 1 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44VANBo HorvatAssists: Chris Tanev, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:39CGYElias LindholmAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 12:58VANJosh LeivoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 13:35CGYSam BennettAssists: James Neal, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P2 13:19CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 15:11VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VAN Elias Pettersson scored
- 2. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 3. VAN Brock Boeser stopped
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 5. VAN Markus Granlund stopped
- 6. CGY James Neal stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:47CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:20VANJake Virtanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:21CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 13:59VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47CGYJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 19:12VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:46VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26VANAlex Biega: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:56CGYDerek Ryan: Holding2 min
- OT 3:37CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan8:51
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett8:26
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan4:38
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:58
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie14:13
xG 1.27–0.24 (84%)attempts 25–7goals 2–1
- Andersson – Kylington7:20
xG 0.77–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:57
xG 0.79–1.08 (42%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Horvat – Goldobin6:35
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Virtanen5:52
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson9:58
xG 0.56–0.90 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Eriksson – Beagle – Motte4:05
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hutton3:08
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Stecher2:31
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Biega – Pouliot10:57
xG 0.76–1.00 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).